Forget the polls, ditch the data and stop sending journalists to swing-state diners to interview undecided voters: historian Allan Lichtman already knows who is going to win the US presidential election. "Harris will win," Lichtman confidently announced to AFP. It can be easy to dismiss Lichtman's signature methodology as just another gimmick in the endless, drawn-out "horse race" style coverage of US elections -- where journalists, pollsters and pundits are constantly trying to see who is up and who is down. But the American University history professor has answers for his critics -- and a track record that's hard to beat, having correctly called all but one election since 1984. Lichtman pays no attention to opinion polls. Instead, his predictions are based on a series of true-or-false propositions applied to the current presidential administration. If six or more of these 13 "keys" are false, the election will go to the out-of-power challenger -- in this case, Republican candidate Donald Trump. The one election where Lichtman's calculations did not predict the president was the 2000 victory of George W. Bush. Lichtman can defend his record by pointing out that this was a legally complicated nail-biter in which Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote but Bush took victory courtesy of a Supreme Court decision. Interested in licensing this video? Get in touch 👉 http://u.afp.com/wvnD AFP’s services and content are for professional use only.