Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris Election Map Polls Explained Join to get access to exclusive president emotes and perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC03DUCXsQBn8joao2kdfUtw/join Subscribe here: www.youtube.com/@EveryExplainedInMinutes Likely states—those expected to be won by either candidate with a margin of 7 to 15 points. The likely states for Kamala Harris include Oregon, where she is anticipated to win by about 12 points. This is a reduction from Biden's 16-point margin in 2020 but still a comfortable victory. Illinois is also expected to lean towards Harris by just under 15 points, along with Delaware, where Biden's narrow margin in 2020 suggests a likely but not overwhelming win for Harris. New Jersey, typically a safe blue state, is more competitive this year due to the unpopularity of Democratic figures like Bob Menendez, which could reduce Harris's margin to under 15 points. New York, with its 28 electoral votes, is another state where Harris is expected to win but with a reduced margin. Despite Biden's 23-point victory in 2020, the unpopularity of local Democratic leaders like Governor Kathy Hochul and Mayor Eric Adams may lead to a tighter race. Colorado, a state Biden won by 13.5 points in 2020, is projected to be another likely Democratic win for Harris, though by a narrower margin of just over seven points. For Donald Trump, the likely states include Iowa and Ohio, both of which he won in 2016 and 2020 by solid margins. These states, once considered swing states, have shifted decisively to the right and are now reliably Republican. In Texas, a state crucial to the GOP's electoral strategy, Trump is expected to win by at least nine points, solidifying its status as a red state despite Democrats' efforts to make inroads. Florida, another critical battleground, has also shifted in Trump's favor. With 30 electoral votes, Florida is expected to go to Trump by a margin of at least seven points, reflecting the GOP's growing dominance in the state. We now turn to the lean states, where the margin of victory is expected to be between 2 and 7 percentage points. These states are more competitive, though one candidate typically has a clear advantage. The first lean state for the Harris campaign is New Mexico, which has been a reliably Democratic state in recent elections. However, the state's Hispanic electorate is shifting rightward, making the race tighter. Harris is still expected to win New Mexico, but by a weaker margin than Biden's 11-point victory in 2020. New Hampshire, with its four electoral votes, is another lean state for Harris. The state has been competitive in recent elections, with Clinton narrowly defeating Trump there in 2016. Biden won New Hampshire by seven points in 2020, but Harris is likely to win by a smaller margin, around 4 to 5 points. Maine's statewide vote, which awards two electoral votes, also falls into the lean category. Biden won Maine by nine points in 2020, but Harris is expected to secure it with a narrower margin. Virginia, with 13 electoral votes, has been trending Republican in recent years. Biden carried the state by a double-digit margin in 2020, but the GOP has gained ground since then, including the election of Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin. As a result, Virginia is now considered a lean Democratic state. The final lean state for Harris is Minnesota, the home state of her running mate, Tim Walz. Although Walz is an asset to the ticket, Minnesota has become more competitive, and Harris is not expected to outperform Biden's seven-point win in 2020. Now, let's explore the lean states for Trump. North Carolina, which Trump won by just 1% in 2020, is likely to remain in the GOP column, with Trump expected to win by around four percentage points. Georgia, another closely watched state, barely went to Biden in 2020 by a quarter of a percentage point. However, with Harris polling worse than Biden in 2020, Trump is favored to win Georgia by a lean margin. Arizona, which Biden won narrowly in 2020, is also expected to swing back to Trump. Harris's focus on the Midwest with her choice of running mate, Tim Walz, leaves her vulnerable in Sunbelt states like Arizona, where Trump is likely to win by a lean margin. Wisconsin is projected to be a lean Republican state, with Trump favored to win by a narrow margin. Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Trump has been leading in the polls for several months, are considered tilt Republican states, meaning they are expected to be decided by less than two percentage points. The addition of J.D. Vance from Ohio as Trump's running mate is likely to help the GOP ticket in these states, offsetting any advantage Harris might gain from having Walz on the ticket.