The last few days have seen two narratives emerge. One, derived from yesterday’s OpenAI leak in TheInformation, that GPT-5/Orion is a disappointment, and less of a leap than GPT-3 to GPT-4. The second comes from a series of 4 clips (shown in this video) from Sam Altman, regarding the ‘clear path’ to AGI. Let’s go beyond the headlines (and through papers like Frontier Math) to get closer to the ground truth… Plus Universal-2, Sora comments, Claude 3.5 Haiku SimpleBench update, and a great new AI video. Assembly AI Speech to Text: https://www.assemblyai.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=influencer&utm_campaign=ai_explained AI Insiders: https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Chapters: 00:00 – Introduction 00:39 – Bear Case, TheInformation Leak 04:01 – Bull Case, Sam Altman 06:20 – FrontierMath 11:29 – o1 Paradigm 13:11 – Text to Video Greatness and Universal-2 TheInformation Leak: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows?rc=sy0ihq Noam Brown Replies: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1855453104394637444 Sam Altman Y-Combinator Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXCBz_8hM9w&t=1556s Altman Reply: https://x.com/sama/status/1855100359511097828 https://simple-bench.com/ FrontierMath Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.04872 Frontier Math Blog Post: https://epochai.org/frontiermath Tao: https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1854996368814936250 MMLU Are We Done (cites me!): https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.04127 Universal-2 https://www.assemblyai.com/research/universal-2 Noam Brown ‘We don’t know’: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr_eYXdHFis Anthropic Founder Response: https://x.com/jackclarkSF/status/1855485569998217231 Sora (Runway Comment): https://x.com/c_valenzuelab/status/1855026417354129455 Sora New Vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iETa2KDRuw Darri3D Video: https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/1gn0n3z/can_you/ The 8 Most Controversial Terms in AI: https://imp.i384100.net/m57g3M Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/ I use Descript to edit my videos: https://get.descript.com/ldgxfuj2bhnb Many people expense AI Insiders for work. Feel free to use the Template in the 'About Section' of my Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained