Sam Altman unexpectedly brings his timelines to AGI forward, while OpenAI backtrack on superintelligence. None of these changes were heralded, but they are significant. Plus the new year brings new assessments of the true capability of models to automate 'large swathes of the economy'. I'll give my prediction on that front for 2025, announcement a new Simple Bench competition, and showcase Kling 1.6 vs Veo 2 vs Sora, and much more. wandb.me/simple-bench (Colab): https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1AVijcPnEkl8Gy_754XbRdG5m7Q5-9slg?usp=sharing AI Insiders: https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained TheAgentCompany Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.14161v1 Sam Altman Major Interview: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-sam-altman-interview/?srnd=phx-ai OpenAI Agent Coming Jan 2025: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-openai-is-taking-so-long-to-launch-agents?rc=sy0ihq Altman Singularity: https://x.com/sama/status/1875603249472139576 Altman Original Timeline: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dCPytNTnjk&t=621s https://www.ft.com/content/34a7a082-e685-4e02-bca7-61ff89d99ed2 OpenAI Original Emails: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5jjk4CDnj9tA7ugxr/openai-email-archives-from-musk-v-altman-and-openai-blog DeepMind Sky News 2014 Article: https://news.sky.com/story/google-buys-uk-intelligence-firm-deepmind-10419783 Altman Blog Reflections: https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections OpenAI Changes Who Gets AGI: https://openai.com/index/why-our-structure-must-evolve-to-advance-our-mission/?s=09 OpenAI 5 Levels: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/openai-sets-levels-to-track-progress-toward-superintelligent-ai Altman 2015: https://blog.samaltman.com/machine-intelligence-part-1 OpenAI React to Anthropic: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/how-anthropic-got-inside-openais-head?rc=sy0ihq Microsoft $100B Definition: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-and-openai-wrangle-over-terms-of-their-blockbuster-partnership?rc=sy0ihq Epoch Scramble for Task Benchmark: https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1876692639363612919 GPQA Progress: https://epoch.ai/data/ai-benchmarking-dashboard Task Length Crucial for ARC-AGI: https://anokas.substack.com/p/llms-struggle-with-perception-not-reasoning-arcagi RL Environment Tweet: https://x.com/vedantmisra/status/1876327518157807990 Jason Wei Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhpjpNXJDco Miles Brundage Tweet: https://x.com/Miles_Brundage/status/1872676399762612457 Jan Leike Tweet: https://x.com/janleike/status/1872909496777134127 O1 Pro Losing Money: https://x.com/sama/status/1876104315296968813 Kling 1.6: https://klingai.com/text-to-video/106634842 Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 01:03 - Altman Timeline Moves Forward 04:33 - Superintelligence? 06:55 - AGI was not the only pitch 09:26 - AgentCompany and OpenAI New Agent 17:24 - SimpleBench Competition 23:03 - Kling 1.6 vs Veo 2 vs Sora Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/